PASADENA, Calif. ― Peak TV has finally peaked.

John Landgraf, the FX Networks chief who is the unofficial oracle of the TV business, estimates there were 516 scripted TV series on U.S. networks and streamers, marking a 14% decline from 2023, when an astounding 600 series aired, up from 560 in 2021. Still, the 2023 tally is higher than the 493 aired in 2020, when the Covid pandemic stalled the TV business.

Landgraf's annual tally of the scripted series climate is a highlight of the Television Critics Association press tour.

"Last winter I finally predicted correctly after a number of wrong guesses that we had peaked and would see a decline," he said, after earlier predictions proved premature.

He believes the trend will continue in 2024: For the first five weeks of this year, he said there's a 31% decrease in the number of shows that aired in the same period early last year. While he conceded it's a small sample, "I do believe these numbers are directionally accurate," Landgraf said. "In 2024, we're going to see more year over year declines between this year and last year."

A big factor in the ramping up of series was cutthroat competition among streaming services to establish themselves and build subscribers. Now that many cutting back as they chase profits rather than growth at all costs, he said the TV industry should more closely resemble a meritocracy.

"We owe audiences a system that demands excellence, in which best shows survive and unsuccessful shows are replaced by new ones," he told TV critics. "At one point there were more than 60 networks and streaming companies making scripted shows, which was just as unsustainable as having 600 shows." But "making good television show is hard, nobody gets it right all the time."

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What's coming to FX in 2024?

Landgraf described a "bittersweet" 2023, in which "Dave" went on an "indefinite hiatus" and "Snowfall," "Archer," "Mayans MC" and "Reservation Dogs" ended their runs. ("We were surprised to say the least" about the decision by "Dogs" producers to end the series after three seasons; "we planned for at least five.") This year, comedy "What We Do in the Shadows" will end its run with a sixth season. "There's a really big turnover in the FX slate, more than I'm comfortable with, but the flip side is it's exciting to see change."

What's new? "Shogun," premiering Feb. 27, an ambitious adaptation of James Clavell's spawling 1975 novel. "In 20 years at FX, we have never undertaken a project of this scale," Landgraf said, noting that FX will air a promo during Sunday's Super Bowl.

Also due: "The Veil," a spy drama starring Elisabeth Moss ("The Handmaid's Tale"), coming April 30; "Clipped," a drama starring Ed O'Neill as Los Angeles Clippers owner Donald Sterling, coming in June along with Season 3 of Emmy-winning "The Bear"; a new scripted "American Sports Story" anthology franchise from producer Ryan Murphy, with the first focused on former NFL player Aaron Hernandez, who died in 2017; and "The English Teacher," a comedy created by and starring Brian Jordan Alvarez set in an Austin, Texas, high school.

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