For Anne Patterson, who is studying to become a psychotherapist at age 55, the several thousand dollars in stimulus checks the government doled out to most Americans during the depths of the pandemic was a godsend.

Patterson, of East Bay, California,  has amassed $100,000 in student loan and other debt, allowing her to just barely pay the bills and forcing her to forgo frills such as dining out and going to the theater.

The government aid in 2020 and 2021 “was extremely helpful,” she says. “I could cover some of the basics like food and medicine.”

But the stimulus money is long gone and the resumption of student loan repayments this fall will saddle her with another $500 monthly expense, she estimates.

“I will certainly have to find places to cut back my spending,” she says, noting that she won’t be able to afford the final stage of a dental crown.

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The pandemic-related savings and government aid that have helped prop up the U.S. economy over the past three years are dwindling, posing new strains for low- and moderate-income households and hazards for a nation at risk of slipping into recession by early 2024.

In interviews and a Harris Poll survey for USA TODAY, Americans whose COVID cash reserves are running low say they’re putting off home projects, eating out less, canceling subscriptions and taking out loans to make ends meet. Those kinds of strategies are likely to toss some cold water on U.S. consumer spending, which makes up 70% of economic activity.

“People have drawn down their savings and have less capital" to spend, says Gregory Daco, chief economist of EY-Parthenon, a consulting firm.

Other households say they still have a good chunk of their COVID savings or never relied on it to pay expenses. Overall, though, the shrinking trove – along with rising credit card interest rates, high inflation and a cooling job market -- could tip the nation into a recession by next year, some forecasters say.

“We are always unwilling to bet against the U.S. consumer, but we’re struggling here to see a plausible path to avoid a meaningful slowdown in their spending,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, recently wrote in a note to clients.

How did stimulus checks help people?

Early in the pandemic, Americans socked away $2.7 trillion in excess cash from three rounds of stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, the pause in student loan repayments and laying low during the health crisis, among other assistance, Moody’s Analytics estimates.

For most people, the stimulus checks alone amounted to $3,200 per individual. All told the $2.7 trillion cash hoard represents an average $21,000 average per household. The stash helped people cushion the blow from high inflation and interest rates, or stay afloat while they took a hiatus from work due to health concerns or childcare duties. It gave others the financial leeway to hunt for a new job after getting laid off during the pandemic.

More than one-third of Americans say the money was “very important” to their financial stability during COVID and about one-quarter say it was “somewhat important,” according to a survey by Suffolk University Sawyer Business School and USA TODAY, conducted in September.

Now, that cache is running dry, by some estimates, at least for the most vulnerable.

Did people save money during COVID?

Seventy-one percent of Americans built excess reserves during the pandemic and six in 10 of those savers say they’ve depleted most or all of that money, according to the USA TODAY/Harris Poll survey, conducted last month. Among that group, 90% have pared back their spending or plan to do so, compared with 62% who haven’t depleted their COVID funds.

Of those slashing spending, 65% are dining out less, 61% are cutting back experiences and 56% are buying fewer discretionary goods, the Harris Poll survey shows.

Patterson, the clinical psychology student, majored in cultural anthropology in college but couldn’t find a position in her field and spent decades in administrative jobs in industries such as mortgage servicing and title insurance. She decided to seek a more fulfilling career a few years ago and looks forward to a six-figure salary in 2024 but is still earning just $50,000 as part of an internship.

Besides putting off the dental crown, she says she’ll offset the student loan payments by shelving veterinary appointments for her three dogs, turning down the air conditioning in the summer and cutting back on twice-weekly DoorDash restaurant deliveries for her and her partner, who is disabled.

Fortunately, she says, she inherited her three-bedroom house from her mother and so doesn’t have a mortgage.

 “It’s scary but I feel like I’m going to be okay,” she says.

How much excess savings is left?

Across the U.S., exactly how much of the pandemic savings remains is something of an open question

Daco reckons $1.3 trillion is still left while Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, puts the figure at $1.8 trillion. Those estimates are based on recent government revisions that added $500 billion to $800 billion to estimated COVID savings totals.

By contrast, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco recently figured that a paltry $190 billion or so was left as of June and that sum likely would be exhausted by the July-September quarter. Agency officials are reworking the number based on the government revisions and wouldn’t comment. Even so, the cash buffer could run out in a few months, according to their most recent analysis.

Even if $1.3 trillion remains, as Shepherdson reckons, his analysis of Federal Reserve data suggests that it’s mostly in the hands of the top 20% of income earners who are less likely to spend it. Low- and middle-income people “have spent nearly all of their excess pandemic savings,” he says.

Zandi disagrees, saying lower and middle-income groups still have about 60% of their COVID stockpile.  

Yet that doesn’t mean they’ll spend it.

'It did take a lot of pressure off'

Christine Perron of Villa Rica, Georgia, says she saved several thousand dollars from stimulus checks and dining out about once a week during COVID, down from as many as four times a week before the pandemic.

Perron, 62, was a baker for a large grocery chain but retired a couple of years ago after receiving a legal settlement for a leg injury she sustained while fixing the roof of her house.

She used her COVID savings to cope with high inflation, including a $500 surge in the price of propane to heat her house for the winter. She also stocked up on toilet paper and other items that were in short supply early in the health crisis.

“It did take a lot of the pressure off,” she says of the government aid.

Perrone also renovated her deck at a cost of $4,800 and bought new carpet for a sitting room.

About half the money is left, Perron says, and she’d like to replace her kitchen floor. But prices have doubled or tripled since COVID amid high material and labor costs and she worries that she won’t recoup her investment when she sells her three-bedroom house.

“If I do it now, I’ll get ripped off,” she says.

Instead, Perron is biding her time and waiting to use the cash to buy a similar-sized house on a smaller parcel that requires less upkeep.

Others burned through their COVID savings long ago.

'You don't know how you're going to get the money'

Michael and Colleen Barineau, of Lehigh Acres, Florida, were scrambling to pay bills before the pandemic. Michael, 62, a former construction worker, is on disability because of a work-related accident. Colleen, an administrative assistant for the medical department of a jail, couldn’t work for three weeks due to pandemic restrictions.

In 2020 and 2021, the couple used the stimulus checks to pay the mortgage on their two-bedroom house, the electric bill and other monthly expenses.

“They kept us afloat,” Michael says. “As soon as they came in the house they were gone.”

Since the money has run out, the Barineaus, who have a combined income of $45,000, have had to take out loans to make ends meet and sometimes fall behind, prompting calls from the mortgage company.

“It’s not fun,” Michael says. “You don’t know how you’re going to get the money.”

'If we had that money, it would be amazing'

Some Americans are plagued by second thoughts about how they spent their windfall.

Terrie Wood, of Riner, Virginia, figures she and her husband, Alan, squirreled away about $5,000 from stimulus checks and hunkering down during COVID.

They needed the cash.

Terrie, 60, had to shut down her horse training and riding lessons business when sales plunged because of COVID. And while Alan earns a healthy six-figure salary as a mechanical engineer, she says the couple has struggled with large tax, insurance and debt payments for their 30-acre farm, tractor and pickup truck.  

They used their COVID savings to whittle down credit card bills and pay off a $3,000 loan for the tractor, wiping out a $580 monthly payment.

“It helped,” she says, “but it wasn’t significant enough.”

Now, she says she wishes they hadn’t paid off the tractor loan because the cash would be providing more breathing room.

“If we had that money it would be amazing,” she says, “so we’re not living paycheck to paycheck.” Plus,  “There would be play money that we don’t have.”

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Others welcomed the pandemic cash bonanza but didn’t depend on it.

Jimothy Locklear, of Charlotte, North Carolina, said he, his wife, and two teenaged children have sharply cut back on dining out and traveling since the crisis, saving thousands of dollars. They also received the stimulus checks.

But Locklear, 45, a warehouse supervisor, and his wife, who owns a housecleaning business, didn’t need the money to pay the bills.

“It padded our savings account,” he says.

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