Predicting the weather for the next few days is no easy task, let alone for the next six weeks. Just ask your local meteorologist. And if trained experts have trouble forecasting what sort of temperatures are in store across the U.S., then what should we expect from a simple marmot?

Come Groundhog Day on Friday, many will gather in Pennsylvania's Gobbler's Knob to eagerly await whether Punxsutawney Phil is destined to see his shadow, signaling another six weeks of winter. But if historical data is any indication, placing our faith in Phil and other lesser-known groundhogs to determine the length of winter may be a foolhardy endeavor.

Still, the fun tradition to break up the monotony of the bitter cold months has endured for well over a century, regardless of how often Phil is right. Here's what to know about just how reliable his predications have come to be:

'He is not a meteorologist'PETA says Groundhog Day's Punxsutawney Phil should be replaced

How often is Punxsutawney Phil right?

Sadly, the groundhog is often wrong when it comes to his predictions.

Last year was the third straight year the groundhog has spotted his shadow, something he has done 107 times since his first prediction in 1887. Though he has apparently seen his shadow in 84% of his predictions, Phil has been right only about 39% of the time, according to the Stormfax Weather Almanac.

Phil's track record in a recent 10-year span has kept up with that historical trend, with the groundhog being right just 40% of the time, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information. The agency compared U.S. national temperatures with Phil’s forecasts to arrive at its conclusion.

"Somehow, according to our experts ... the groundhog has been less accurate than a coin flip over the past ten years," the center said in an email to USA TODAY. Hey, maybe PETA is onto something after all. The animal rights group suggested that Phil's duties be replaced with a coin toss.

In Graphics: How accurate is Phil?A visual guide to Punxsutawney Phil and other animals that forecast the weather on Groundhog Day

In 2022, the most recent year analyzed, the contiguous United States saw slightly below average temperatures in February and above average temperatures in March after Phil forecasted a long winter.

"Predicting the arrival of springtime for an entire country, especially one with such varied regional climates as the United States, isn’t easy," the center said. "Phil’s track record is evidence of that."

You might find disagreement from the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club's Inner Circle, the group that puts on the annual event and takes care of Phil. The group says the groundhog's prediction is right "100% of the time, of course!"

How many times has he predicted a longer winter or early spring?

The Groundhog Day gathering has become a cornerstone event in Punxsutawney, which has marked the occasion every year since mention of the holiday first appeared in 1886 in the local newspaper, according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club.

Tourists from all over the world make the trek to Gobbler's Knob, where the club's president speaks "groundhogese" to Phil before translating the animal's prediction in a tradition stemming from an ancient European celebrations and German lore.

Since 1887, Punxsutawney Phil has predicted the weather outlook 127 times. There have been only 10 instances where it was not recorded (including in 1886) and once where he did not appear (1943).

He has seen his shadow the most, as he has predicted a longer winter 107 (84%) times. Here's are all of his results since 1886:

  • Saw shadow (six more weeks of winter): 107
  • No shadow (early spring): 19
  • Partial shadow: 1
  • No record: 10
  • Did not appear: 1

Punxsutawney Phil's recent predictions and Groundhog Day results 

Here are the past 10 predictions made by Punxsutawney Phil:

  • 2014: Shadow 
  • 2015: Shadow 
  • 2016: No Shadow 
  • 2017: Shadow 
  • 2018: Shadow 
  • 2019: No Shadow 
  • 2020: No Shadow
  • 2021: Shadow 
  • 2022: Shadow
  • 2023: Shadow

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