On today's episode of The Excerpt podcast: Police stormed a Columbia University building Tuesday amid ongoing protests. Former President Donald Trump's hush money trial continues. USA TODAY Congress, Campaigns and Democracy Reporter Karissa Waddick looks at why election polls matter. The Biden administration plans to drastically change federal rules on marijuana. USA TODAY Breaking News and Education Reporter Zach Schermele talks about the chaos caused for students nationwide amid delays in the college financial aid process.

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Hit play on the player below to hear the podcast and follow along with the transcript below. This transcript was automatically generated, and then edited for clarity in its current form. There may be some differences between the audio and the text. 

Taylor Wilson:

Good morning. I'm Taylor Wilson and today is Wednesday, May 1st, 2024. This is The Excerpt.

Today, police have stormed a building held by protesters at Columbia, plus Trump's hush money trial continues, and we look at the significance of polling as we move deeper into the election year.

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Police in riot gear stormed into a building held by pro-Palestinian protesters at Columbia University late yesterday. City police in an armored vehicle used a mechanical ramp to enter Hamilton Hall through a window shortly after 9:30 PM, as hundreds of protesters below looked on or were arrested by police on the ground. More than a dozen pro-Palestinian demonstrators were taken away in zip tie handcuffs.

Columbia University officials said they had no choice but to request police intervention. A statement read, quote, "After the university learned overnight that Hamilton Hall had been occupied, vandalized, and blockaded, we were left with no choice. Columbia public safety personnel were forced out of the building and a member of our facilities team was threatened. We will not risk the safety of our community or the potential for further escalation," unquote. Columbia protesters are demanding the school halt investments with companies profiting from Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza, and they want amnesty for students and faculty involved in the protest.

For their part, the American Association of University Professors' Columbia University chapter released a statement reading, quote, "Columbia faculty have attempted for the past two weeks to intervene in the situation, only to be shut out by senior university leadership," unquote. They went on to say that NYPD presence in the neighborhood endangers the community.

Protests continue at colleges around the country. USC and UCLA in Los Angeles continue to see large encampments on campus, and 79 people have been arrested in connection with a protest at the University of Texas. You can stay up with all the latest on usatoday.com.

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A lawyer who represented former Playboy model Karen McDougal testified yesterday about his efforts to get her story of an affair with former President Donald Trump into the hands of the National Enquirer during the 2016 presidential campaign. Attorney Keith Davidson, who had also represented porn star Stormy Daniels, texted the Enquirer's editor that he had a story that the tabloid, which was backing Trump's first White House campaign, would want to purchase and suppress.

His testimony at day nine of Trump's historic New York hush money trial came after the former president earlier in the day was held in criminal contempt and fined $9,000 for violating a judge's gag order. Trump's Truth social account has removed posts that Judge Juan Merchan ruled earlier were in violation of his order. Trump, the first-ever former president to face criminal trial, is charged with doctoring business records to cover up the true purpose of reimbursements he made to his attorney, Michael Cohen.

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Former president Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in seven key swing states according to a new poll from Emerson College and The Hill. The poll conducted between April 25th and April 29th shows Trump leading Biden by three points in Georgia, four points in Arizona, and five points in North Carolina among other leads. As we continue to break down polling data throughout this election year it does beg the question, can you trust election polls? I caught up with USA TODAY Congress, Campaigns and Democracy reporter Karissa Waddick for a refresher on why polls matter and how to read them.

Karissa, thanks for hopping on.

Karissa Waddick:

Yeah, thanks for having me, Taylor.

Taylor Wilson:

Karissa, let's just start with this. What do polls actually tell us about elections?

Karissa Waddick:

People commonly think of polls as predictions of how the election is going to turn out, and that is not the case at all, that is not how we should be looking at polls. We should be looking at polls as a snapshot of how people are feeling in this moment.

The polls really tend to gauge how people are feeling about the state of the race within a specific time period, and that's really important because polls have a fairly short shelf life. Pollsters will go out and they'll ask voters questions in a period of a couple of days, and the news cycle changes very quickly and public opinion can shift very quickly. And so the results of a poll from two weeks ago might not reflect the state of the race today. So we need to look at polls within the time period that they were taken and make sure we're always looking at the latest polling data that we have.

But polls also tell us about more than just the horse race, more than about who's leading in any given race. They can also tell us about trends, how voters are feeling about major issues, and a lot of other just different topics that are really roiling the race.

Taylor Wilson:

Yeah, so, Karissa, why should we be cautious when considering two candidate polls?

Karissa Waddick:

Not all polls are both the same. Every organization does their polls slightly differently. The design of the polls from the way questions are worded, to the demographics of participants who are chosen, to number of other details all really influence the results of the poll.

I spoke to an expert who said that if you're looking at a poll that just has President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump listed, you're missing people who might be voting for a third party. The election won't be a binary choice for voters. In other races independents have really made a difference in the outcome, even though they don't typically win. And so making sure that that's accounted for can determine how accurate a poll is.

Taylor Wilson:

Yeah. And, Karissa, why is it crucial to really pay attention to who is being polled in the sample population?

Karissa Waddick:

Polls generally ask questions of people to get at the demographic information, and every organization uses different methodology to create the samples of voters who are in their polls. A poll is a randomly selected group of a small amount of people that's meant to represent a broader, larger population.

Some election polls will take the temperature of a general population of people and other ones will look at active voters, those who are definitely going to vote in the election. One of the experts I spoke with said that polls that are looking at these active voters are the most important because these voters allow us in the media and political scientists to better understand which Americans are going to be choosing the next president, and they allow us to better track trends.

Taylor Wilson:

I'm curious, are national polls or polls at the state level more relevant when talking about presidential races? What have we seen in past elections?

Karissa Waddick:

I would say that both national and state polls are relevant. A national poll is taken, you see the general makeup of how people across the country are feeling. That's reflected of the popular vote. If we look back at 2016, everyone said those polls were not accurate. Well, the national polls, they did show that Hillary Clinton was going to win and Hillary Clinton did win the popular vote. But those polls, in that year, we didn't see a lot of state level polls, particularly in some of the states that Trump won in a surprising way. I'm thinking Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

And so making sure that we're keeping track of state level polls is key in this election season to see how the race is going to go and see how the electoral [inaudible 00:07:41] is going to go. Experts emphasize that national polls are generally speaking more valuable to understand the big issues and the trends in the race, whereas state polls help us understand more of the horse race elements.

Taylor Wilson:

So a million-dollar question, Karissa, the crux of your piece, can we actually trust the polls?

Karissa Waddick:

It's always good to be cautious, and there are definitely some uncertainties in polls. That's inevitable, that's baked into the very concept of polling when you're dealing with so many different factors.

But if you're looking at them correctly and you're taking the polls with a grain of salt, then I think you can trust them. Polls might be inaccurate by a couple of points, but overall, if we're looking at the trends, they generally speaking will show us the way that the race is going.

Taylor Wilson:

Karissa Waddick covers Congress, Campaigns and Democracy for USA TODAY. Thank you, Karissa.

Karissa Waddick:

Perfect, thanks.

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Taylor Wilson:

The Biden administration is set to make a major change to the federal government's position on marijuana, with a proposed plan that would no longer consider it among the most dangerous and addictive substances. In what would be the biggest change in marijuana policy the federal government has taken since pot was first outlawed, the Drug Enforcement Administration will take public comments on a plan to recategorize marijuana under the Controlled Substances Act according to a source familiar with the process. The news was first reported by the Associated Press.

The plan would not legalize marijuana at the federal level, but it would reclassify it from a Schedule I drug, thought to be highly dangerous, addictive, and without medical use, to a Schedule III drug that can be lawfully prescribed as medication. Marijuana has been a Schedule I drug since the Controlled Substances Act was signed in 1970. 24 states and Washington DC have legalized the recreational use of marijuana and 14 other states authorized it for medical use according to the Pew Research Center

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Delays in the college financial aid process have turned college decision day into chaos for students across the country. I spoke with USA TODAY Breaking News and Education reporter Zach Shermele to learn more.

Zach, thanks for hopping on The Excerpt today.

Zach Shermele:

Thanks for having me, Taylor.

Taylor Wilson:

Zach, how has the government really botched its handling of financial aid? Reset the stage for us.

Zach Shermele:

May 1st has long been the typical deadline for students to decide where to attend college, but for many applicants across the country, this year, Taylor, was really the year that everything fell apart. Picking a college is anxiety-inducing even in a normal year, but the federal government's bungled handling of changes to financial aid in recent months have upended that decision-making process, really affecting broad swaths of students.

The stress stems from a form called the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, which really is the linchpin of the higher education system. Historically, that application required students and their families to answer dozens of complicated questions on decades-old technology. Congress mandated that Biden administration officials fix it. However, the new FAFSA has been beset with technological glitches and corrupted data, delaying aid offers for months in jeopardizing the futures of lots of students. Even education department staffers have told me in recent months that they're really not happy with their bosses, one of whom is now set to step down from his post later this summer.

Taylor Wilson:

Yeah. And, Zach, how have these FAFSA issues been particularly brutal for low-income students?

Zach Shermele:

The vast majority of America's college students rely on financial aid to pay for school, but the latest data we have shows that completion of the FAFSA among high school seniors is down by about a third compared to this time last year. That number has gotten slightly better in recent weeks but look, it's still a really big deal. A lot of college financial aid staffers feel like they're kind of in the twilight zone here, they've never seen delays like this.

Taylor Wilson:

And what have these problems meant for many students from so-called mixed-status families. And can you remind us a mixed-status family is, Zach?

Zach Shermele:

Yeah, one of the main issues has involved students whose parents don't have social security numbers. So these are typically immigrant families whose students would be first generation college-goers. A group of people, by the way, that the new FAFSA was intended to help from the start.

There are tons of different types of problems that students have been dealing with that I won't bore you with, but the bottom line is that many students whose parents or guardians don't have social security numbers just haven't been able to successfully fill out the form and get it submitted. It wasn't until yesterday that the education department finally said it was going to temporarily let applicants and parents without social security numbers immediately access and submit the form. Keep in mind, that was a day before the traditional college decision deadline.

Taylor Wilson:

Zach, have we heard any recent FAFSA success stories?

Zach Shermele:

Absolutely. We have certainly heard from students who said the forms seemed easy to submit, which is a big change compared to how students have historically perceived it. The education department has said some applicants could answer as few as 18 questions, which could take less than 10 minutes.

And there are lots of students by now who've made their decisions based on provisional offers from their colleges, which in many cases probably won't change. I think the biggest question here though is how all of this has impacted those students for whom going to college has always been more of a dream than a reality that they counted on.

Taylor Wilson:

Yeah. So how might the effects of this bungled FAFSA rollout be felt for potentially years to come, Zach? What are the broad implications here?

Zach Shermele:

You know, Taylor, where you go to college and how much you pay has downstream effects that can affect you for the rest of your life, the friends you make, the things you learn, what you major in, all that stuff. And though the improved form may end up making the college admissions and enrollment process easier for families in the future, I think the question we're all asking is what was lost in the fulfillment of that goal? Things will probably be better going forward, but at what cost?

One Massachusetts teen we talked to, his story really stands out to me. He said he never thought that going to college was a possibility until a non-profit counseling organization showed him it could actually be affordable. Then he had so many challenges this year with filling out the FAFSA, he just gave up. Now he plans to join the Marines instead.

Taylor Wilson:

All right, Zach Shermele, covers Breaking News and Education for USA TODAY. Really interesting story here. Thanks, Zach.

Zach Shermele:

Thanks, Taylor.

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Taylor Wilson:

Be sure to stay tuned to The Excerpt later today when I chat with USA TODAY Sports National Correspondent Lindsay Schnell to break down how women's sports is breaking barriers and gaining ground with new fans in the era of Caitlin Clark. You can find the episode right here beginning at 4:00 P.M. Eastern Time.

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Thanks for listening to The Excerpt. You can get the podcast wherever you get your pods, and if you're on a smart speaker, just ask for The Excerpt. I'm Taylor Wilson, back tomorrow with more of The Excerpt from USA TODAY.

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